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Energy Prices (mid January 2015)

mid January 2015

Electricity:  The sharp falls in price over the last few weeks leave the market vulnerable to a price bounce if cold weather, infrastructure issues or any international unrest upset the current sense of security.

Weather forecasters continue to expect January to be colder than average, which could increase power demands in the coming weeks.

EU electricity demand fell by 2.7% in 2014, while further annual falls in consumption are expected at a rate of 1% per year until 2020.

Gas: Colder weather is expected to intensify over the next few weeks, boosting demand and market sensitivity, potentially driving prices higher.

Oil prices may fall further, with new analysis suggesting $40/barrel is the point at which US shale oil producers are forced to cut back production. Some forecasts suggest the price may fall as low as $31/barrel before the end of March.

Summary position:

Oil $47.95/barrel

Coal $59.25/MT

EUA 14 €7.23/TCO2

Gas 45.93p/th Apr 15

Gas 46.25p/th Oct 15

Electricity £44.3MWh Apr 15

Electricity £44.48/MWh Oct 15